/pol/ - Politically Correct

You said “1 thousand nukes each exploded on each side of the Bosporus.” I’ll interpret that as ~1,000 nuclear detonations on the European side of the Bosporus and ~1,000 on the Asian side (≈2,000 detonations total). I don’t know yields, so I’ll sketch three broad-yield scenarios to show how effects scale: small (~10 kt), medium (~100 kt), and large (~1 megaton). Real outcomes depend strongly on yield, burst altitude, and exact locations (city-center vs. offshore).

Immediate effects (minutes → hours)

Blast and thermal: Thousands of simultaneous nuclear detonations within/around Istanbul and nearby coasts would create enormous overpressure and thermal zones. Close to ground-zero you’d get near-total destruction; many square kilometers would be flattened per detonation. With hundreds-to-thousands of detonations concentrated on both shores, most urban areas around the Bosporus would be destroyed.

Casualties in the affected urban zones would be millions (dead and severely injured) within hours — emergency services and hospitals would be overwhelmed or destroyed.

Radiation (prompt and early fallout): Survivors near ground bursts would receive lethal doses. Fallout plumes depend on winds but would contaminate large swathes of Turkey and neighboring countries. Drinking water, food supplies, and infrastructure would be heavily contaminated regionally.

Fires and infrastructure collapse: Mass fires, collapse of power/communications/transport, and ruptured water and sewage systems would follow immediately, preventing effective rescue and increasing deaths from burns, smoke, and lack of medical care.

Regional environmental and economic collapse (days → months)

Bosphorus and maritime routes: The Bosporus is a narrow strategic waterway connecting the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. Multiple detonations on or near the water would likely render large stretches of the strait unusable for an extended time (wreckage, contamination, navigational hazards). Global shipping through that chokepoint would be disrupted, with cascading economic effects.

Contaminated seas and fisheries: Radioactive contamination of the Sea of Marmara and parts of the Black Sea would devastate fisheries, marine ecosystems, and coastal economies for years or longer.

Public health crises: Lack of clean water, destroyed hospitals, and disrupted supply chains would cause epidemics, starvation risks in the affected region, and massive long-term public-health burdens.

Refugee flows: Millions would flee inland or to neighboring states, creating a major humanitarian crisis across the region and Europe.

Longer-term ecological & global climatic effects (months → years)

Fallout spread: Depending on wind patterns, the radioactive fallout could spread far beyond Turkey — across the eastern Mediterranean, into southeastern Europe, and into parts of the Middle East. Agricultural lands downwind would be unusable for varying periods.

Possible climate impacts: Two thousand detonations, especially if many are high-yield or cause massive urban firestorms, could loft large amounts of soot into the upper atmosphere. That soot can reduce sunlight, cool surface temperatures, shorten growing seasons, and reduce crop yields — a “nuclear winter”-style effect. How severe depends on total smoke/soot injected; even moderate injections could cause widespread agricultural disruption and famine risks globally.

Biodiversity loss: Local extinctions, collapse of ecosystems in contaminated zones, and long-term soil and water contamination.

Human toll (very rough, conservative qualitative picture)

Immediate deaths/injuries: For concentrated strikes on a mega-city region, millions dead immediately is plausible; injured and displaced would be multiples of that.

Medium-term deaths (weeks–months): Radiation sickness, lack of medical care, starvation, and disease could add millions more.

Long-term mortality: Through disrupted agriculture, economic collapse, and environmental damage, tens of millions more worldwide could suffer increased mortality over years — depending on how much global climate and supply chains are affected.

(These are qualitative expectations — precise numbers would require detailed modeling and are very sensitive to assumptions about yield, burst types, and timing.)